The New Tim Hardaway Jr.

The cryptic message came from a friend in a group chat before I received any ESPN updates.  “OH NO. 4 years $71 mill. How the fuck does that happen?” Before I had time to respond, the phone buzzed with a notification naming the who and the how.  “Ah shit.” I say, “Atlanta isn’t matching this.”

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The first signing of the Steve Mills era was at best, an ill-advised leap of faith on a player he once drafted; at worst, a disaster waiting to happen.  A non-tradable, cap-handcuffing, Joakim-Noah-sized disaster for a team that would hope to bring in top tier free agents to play alongside their prized unicorn in the coming offseasons.  Tuesday night marked the 16th month since that offer sheet was signed by Hardaway and to the fans hopeful of a Kevin Durant or Kyrie Irving acquisition this summer, it’s an albatross hanging over the neck of this franchise.  One that will remain for years to come if the Knicks come up empty this summer. However, the player that teammates call “Angry Grandpa” has been given an opportunity to lead a young Knicks roster (they just started their youngest lineup in franchise history last week) and it has provided a chance to live up to that contract.  

According to Sportrac, Tim Hardaway is currently the 14th highest paid shooting guard in the NBA.  Of the 13 players ahead of him, 6 of them have been all stars, 5 are regular starters and 2 of them are Allen Crabbe and Tyler Johnson.  Eliminating the all stars from the equation – and Crabbe and Johnson – the best comparisons for Hardaway right now are CJ McCollum, Nicolas Batum, Zach Lavine, Wesley Matthews, and Kent Bazemore.  Each player’s salary is in the range of 18 to 26 million dollars this year and make up 17.6-25.5% of the NBA salary cap. So far this season, Hardaway ranks 2nd in scoring, 2nd in 3-pt %, 3rd in assists, 1st in FT %, 2nd in FT attempts, 2nd in PER, and 3rd in VORP among these 6 players.  He has the 2nd highest usage rate and has still been just as efficient as any other in this group. Hardaway leads in OBPM with almost double CJ McCollum who ranks 2nd. Overall, Hardaway’s production has been comparable to McCollum, who has a good reputation around the league as the 2nd option for a playoff team in the West.  

Obviously, the difference in situations between McCollum and Hardaway can be a big indicator in overall production and there is no telling what CJ could do in Hardaway’s role, especially with the support from Fizdale to take on the bulk of the scoring load. But, the numbers so far do lead to an interesting thought experiment on what Hardaway could be for a contender.  I have always envisioned Hardaway as a player perfectly suited as the first man off the bench on a playoff team. A Jamal Crawford or JR Smith type, who comes in and torches team’s 2nd units and provides a jolt of energy. Last year, he played 2nd fiddle to Porzingis with mixed results. He struggled to stay healthy, missing the entire month of December, but was a big part of the team’s solid start, averaging 19.2 ppg on 44% shooting from October 27th to December 1st;  A stretch in which the Knicks were 11-7 and Porzingis looked like a bona fide MVP candidate. When he returned on January 12th, the two played 10 more games together before the ACL injury. From then on, Hardaway struggled mightily as the first option, averaging 18.5 points on 43% shooting and an abysmal 31% from 3. However, what Hardaway has shown this year in a small sample size leads me to believe that the early season results in a healthy combination with KP might be closer to the reality of his future than a brief flash in the pan.  

In an unprecedentedly high usage, Hardaway has not only parlayed it into more points, but better playmaking, and higher scoring efficiency.  Despite shooting only 41% from the field so far this season his true shooting % of 56% is consistent with the numbers posted in Atlanta in a significantly smaller role.  The field goal percentage posted is also due for a bit of positive regression. Through 12 games this year Hardaway is shooting 56% on shots 0-3 feet from the basket and only 21% from 3-10 feet.  These values are 9 and 10 points, respectively, below his career averages from these distances. It is reasonable to anticipate as the season goes on his field goal percentage on layups will experience some positive regression towards the mean which should give him a bit of a bump in efficiency with 15% of his shot attempts coming from here.  However, I don’t expect the 3 point percentage to experience regression towards his career averages. So far this season Tim is shooting 44% from 3 on shots that NBA tracking data categorizes as “open” shots (closest defender 6 or more feet away) despite a career percentage just short of 40. Additionally, with Fizdale challenging Tim to take on more of a playmaking role to get teammates involved he has shown small, but noticeable, improvements in creating opportunities for his teammates, while maintaining his typically low turnover numbers.  Posting career highs in assists per game and assist percentage while his turnover rate rests below his career average, Hardaway has rounded out his game on offense. Overall, this has led to a 6th best offensive rating for guards with a usage over 25. The 5 players ahead of him? Damian Lillard, Stephen Curry, Kemba Walker, DeMar DeRozan, and Kyrie Irving.

When Steve Mills extended that offer, he even admitted that Hardaway had work to do to earn the money.  He tasked Hardaway with improving his game to make sure that he would live up to the demands of being a starting shooting guard in the NBA and the fans who will expect a lot from him based on that contract.  Now in the early stages of year two of this deal, Hardaway has shown that he is absolutely returning the value, despite the struggles of these young Knicks. If he continues to play this well, there may even be a real trade market for him come February, specifically the Pelicans who can use scoring on the wing.  And if that market never develops then the Knicks have their starting shooting guard for the next 2 years playing alongside a hopefully healthy Porzingis and the assortment of lottery picks they have and will continue to piece together.  There are worse burdens for a franchise to carry.

What is Frank’s Ceiling?

Chauncey Billups is obviously best known for his time with the Detroit Pistons and Denver Nuggets.  From his first year in Detroit in 2003, through 2011 when he was a part of the Carmelo Anthony trade to the Knicks, Billups averaged 17.3 points per game, 6.2 assists per game, made 2 All-Defensive teams, 3 All-NBA teams, played in 7 straight conference finals (6 in Detroit and 1 in Denver), and won an NBA championship while being named Finals MVP.  Certainly not the resume expected from a player that was labeled a draft bust by year three of his career. Drafted 3rd overall by the Boston Celtics during the Pitino era, there was a lot of focus given to whether Billups projected as a point guard or shooting guard. Like most rookies Billups put up poor shooting numbers, and experienced his ups and downs playing major minutes for a young, but talented Celtics team that also included Antoine Walker and 6th overall pick that year Ron Mercer.  Pitino however, grew impatient with the growing pains of his top pick. New York playground legend/former All-Star Kenny Anderson became available after refusing to play for Toronto, so Pitino pulled the trigger and shipped off Billups in a 7-player deal to acquire him. By the end of his rookie year between both Boston and Toronto, Billups had averaged 11.2 points per game and 3.9 assists per game on 37.4% shooting. The Raptors eventually traded Billups to Toronto before the 1999-00 season began and by the time he eventually arrived in Detroit, it was his 5th team in 5 years.  Dealing with poor outside shooting and a rash of injuries during his time in Denver and signing with Minnesota to play in a reduced role (and out of position), it wasn’t until the 2002 postseason that Billups gave the first real glimpse of what he’d become down the road. In his first postseason in an expanded role, Billups averaged 22 points, 6 assists, 5 rebounds and a steal per game. The Timberwolves were swept by the Mavericks, but Billups parlayed his success into a 6 year contract with Detroit. The rest is history.

Which brings us to New York Knicks guard, Frank Ntilikina.  Just by looking at them the comparison between Frank and Billups would never be considered.  Ntilikina, a long and wiry 6 foot 6 with a 7’1” wingspan, to Billups’ 6’3”, 210 lbs and 6’8” wingspan.  Billups, a bulldog, to Ntilikina’s standard poodle. Even the two journeys to the league couldn’t be more different.  While Billups was a typical top prospect of the 90’s – an All-American standout at the University of Colorado – Frank Ntilikina’s first time in the United States was the day the Knicks drafted him.  Growing up in France, Frank played pro ball at an early age for Strasbourg in the French league. He contributed off the bench as a role player where he developed advanced defensive skills, but never experienced an extended opportunity to run an offense and play freely the way young Americans do playing AAU ball and in high school.  When that opportunity did come, Frank dominated for the French National Team in the U18 world championships, winning the title and earning tournament MVP honors. It was at this tournament that NBA scouts (Phil Jackson’s draft guru Clarence Gaines in particular) identified Ntilikina as a legitimate lottery prospect and future NBA point guard.  

Fast-forward to June of 2017; after another difficult season for Carmelo Anthony, Kristaps Porzingis and the Knicks, fan morale is at a new low.  Porzingis skips out on his exit interview with Phil Jackson, Carmelo Anthony and the Knicks are at a strange standstill thanks to his NTC, and the news of the day floats between the team dysfunction and which point guard prospect was brought in for a workout.  The 2017 draft class is loaded with point guards, drawing comparisons to 2009 (Steph Curry, James Harden and Russell Westbrook) and 1997 (Allen Iverson, Stephon Marbury, Steve Nash, oh… and Kobe Bean Bryant). Markelle Fultz, Lonzo Ball, De’aaron Fox, Frank Ntilikina, Dennis Smith Jr., Malik Monk, and Donovan Mitchell; all point guards or combo guards, and all projected to be picked at some point in the lottery.  With Fultz, Ball, and Fox off the board, the Knicks go with Ntilikina, the youngest of the group who pundits all consider a fit for the triangle. After similarly passing over the typical college standouts in 2015 selecting Porzingis over Justise Winslow and Willie Cauley-Stein, the Knicks went with the same formula, the unknown.

This all feels like a lifetime ago. Jackson was fired less than a month later for threatening to trade Porzingis and Carmelo was traded on the eve of training camp.  Coach Jeff Hornacek was given another chance despite the new regime of Scott Perry and Steve Mills, but the sense was that he was a lame-duck, destined to be replaced in a year unless a miracle playoff run occurred.  For Frank there was a sense of cautious optimism. An unknown 19 year old, transitioning into the toughest league and media market all while playing the toughest position. Year 1 brought plenty of ups and downs for the French Prince.  He won over the hearts of fans in an early November matchup against the Cavs in which he stood his ground as Lebron James bumped him and tried to intimidate him. He had his teammates rallying around him and fans raving in a stretch of games from October 27th to Christmas Day in which he averaged 6 points, 3 assists, and 1.5 steals in only 21 minutes per game.  Nothing outrageous, but numbers that translated to solid per-36 minute stats for a 19 year old rookie. Not to mention his impact on the defense as a whole and the seemingly great fit in a short sample of minutes with Porzingis (who was going scorched earth on the league up to this point). Then January happened. Frank had a stretch in mid-January in which he was held scoreless four out of six games. Then came the addition of Mudiay and emergence of Trey Burke to cut into his playing time.  By season’s end, we were talking less about Frank as the future point guard of the Knicks and more about if he even was a point guard at all. Sports talk radio in New York has considered him all but a waste of a pick, another miss from the Phil Jackson era. To the fans he had become the most polarizing Knick in recent memory. Half were convinced he was already a bust, an offensive liability who couldn’t dribble, shoot, or run an offense. The other half spent the summer posting his workout videos all over the Knicks subreddit.  

For those keeping track, we already have gone from prospect, to promising point guard, to maybe a shooting guard, to bust.  Sound familiar? In the Twitter and hot take era of NBA basketball these things happen much faster. What took 3 years and 3 teams for Chauncey Billups took a third of the time for Frank. Twenty years ago, Ntilikina likely would have been traded midway through his rookie season quite like Billups.  The Knicks have had several management iterations that resemble Pitino’s Celtics (aka, disasters) and the patience would have worn thin. With the constant comparisons to Mitchell and DSJ, buyer’s remorse would have set in sometime around the new year and he would’ve been shipped off at the deadline for Kemba Walker.   Now, finally in the starting point guard role, it is time for Frank to use Chauncey Billups as the framework for his own game.

Frank’s lack of explosiveness off the dribble and scoring aggressiveness are typically the biggest knocks on his game.  As for the aggression, it will come. However, the first-step explosion and downhill speed will never be a part of his game.  Frank will never be the power running back that bursts through a hole in the defense, blowing by everybody to get to the rim for a thunderous dunk.  The fans who are looking for him to be John Wall or Russell Westbrook are destined to be disappointed. But, looking to Chauncey Billups as an example, there are parts of Frank’s game that can be utilized for him to reach his potential.  Despite never being an efficient scorer, Chauncey Billups’ blossomed as an elite point guard almost entirely thanks to a consistent three point shot. After struggling with the three point shot early in his career (and playing in a league that didn’t value the 3 the way it is valued today) Billups began shooting at a 39% clip in 2002.  There was no looking back from here as he only shot under 38% one more time for the rest of his career. With opponents not being able to give him an inch of space, Billups was able to get by defenders without plus athleticism, using methodical pacing of his dribble moves and good use of a floater to keep big men guessing in the paint.

With Derek Fisher playing Billups out 25 feet, Billups is able to lull Fisher to sleep and use a quick change of pace to get around him.  So far this year Frank is shooting 41% from 3 and 50% in his two games starting at the point. With defenders going under screens against him and sagging off at the top of the key he is making them pay.  If this stays consistent, and there is nothing to suggest it can’t based on his pre-NBA shooting numbers and clean form, Frank will be given an opportunity to take advantage of defenders playing too aggressive to prevent the outside shot.  

Last Monday night against Brooklyn, Frank called for a high screen and roll with Mitchell Robinson on back to back plays. On the first play, Russell goes underneath the screen and Frank unloads. The following play, with Russell having to respect Frank’s jumper due to the previous possession, Frank takes advantage of the step of space and slips an accurate bounce pass right into Robinson’s pocket.  This is in spite of a poor screen from Robinson where he left too early. It’s hard not to envision pick and rolls with Porzingis that resemble Billups and Rasheed or Ben Wallace.

Billups takes advantage of an odd step up from Kittles to get ahead of a potential screen from Ben Wallace and uses a hard crossover to get into the lane.  With Rodney Rogers backpedaling on his heels, Billups quickly stops for the floater and draws the foul from Kittles. A move like this one is something Ntilikina can utilize going forward, especially as his floater continues to improve.  Klay Thompson is a much stronger defender than Kittles, but here Frank is able to get him to bite on a pump fake to turn into a floater.

With the news that Scott Perry has been communicating with former Pistons like Rasheed Wallace, who visited practice this week to work with the big men, and Billups, hopefully Frank takes the time to get to know Chauncey Billups well.  Most importantly beyond the play on offense, Billups was a tenacious defender who had a fuck-you attitude that was unrivaled in his prime. He was the heartbeat of the mid-2000’s Pistons that dominated the Eastern Conference for nearly a decade with physical defense.  This is what’s so special about Frank. Even if these past two games are nothing more than a flash in the pan, he provides so much value with his defense. The swagger he could potentially carry on the court has already been seen in bits and pieces like the aforementioned Lebron moment.  Considering this, it becomes easy to fantasize about Ntilikina as the floor general for Knicks playoff teams for the next decade. Running pick and rolls with a healthy Porzingis, finding Kevin Knox on the wing, and pulling up for clutch threes at the top of the key while the Knicks rock the Garden like the good old days.  Right now, all we have as Knicks fans is hope and fantasy, but trust the progress of these baby-bockers and their fearless leader Fizdale and we may all be rewarded. As for the 20-year-old starting point guard of the New York Knicks, he is gonna play his game and ignore the noise, just like he has done since the boos rained down on draft night.   

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Wardell Stephen Curry II: A Legend in the Making

Wardell Stephen Curry II is the best basketball player since Michael Jordan.

     Yes this is a fact and don’t laugh just yet. No, Stephen Curry has not had as good of an overall career as some others that have played since Michael Jordan retired. Kobe has won 2 more championships, an MVP award, and has surpassed “His Airness” on the all-time scoring list. LeBron James has cemented his place in league history with 2 championships, 4 MVP awards and, as he enters the later stages of his career, is on pace to potentially dethrone Kareem Abdul-Jabbar as the all-time scoring champ. Tim Duncan has even gotten himself a couple more rings and proven the existence of the fountain of youth. But this year, as Stephen Curry and the Golden State Warriors chase history to be the best team since Michael and his 96 Bulls, “The Baby-Faced Assassin” has become the greatest basketball player in the world and is having the greatest offensive season in NBA history. And I have facts to prove it.

Let’s start with Curry’s outstanding per game numbers. Over 54 games so far this season, he is averaging 30.0 points, 6.6 assists, and 5.3 rebounds per game. He is currently the NBA’s scoring leader and he has sat out 15 fourth quarters this year and is not even in the top 20 in minutes played. He also leads the league in field goals made by over 10 and is third in field goals attempted. He is 18th in field goal percentage for the NBA and is 2nd among guards. The only guard with a better shooting percentage is Tony Parker, who plays in the Spurs super-duper efficient offense which is a well-oiled machine that can give common rec league stars open shots. Now you might be saying to yourself right now, “yeah Pat this is all impressive, but best since Michael Jordan? Really?” Yes really. The simple everyday stats for Stephen Curry do not tell the whole story (as they usually don’t). Where you see the transcendent version of Steph is a mixture of eye test and my favorite measure of a superstar player; advanced stats.

Shown above are the Per 36 minutes efficiency stats for three of the best offensive seasons in NBA history: Jordan in 1987, Kobe in 2006, and Curry this year. What is constantly mentioned in the media is the short amount of time that Curry needs to score nearly 30 points per game, but what I find even more impressive is how he influences the game without being incredibly ball dominant like his predecessors have been. By looking at the three stat lines above, there is no real differentiation between the three from a total numbers perspective, but one player is significantly higher in the shooting percentage categories. Curry scores more points than Kobe and only 2 per 36 minutes less than Jordan did while taking a little more than 4 less shots than Jordan and 3 shots less than Kobe. His overall field goal percentage is 5% higher than Kobe and 2% higher than Jordan. I decided to take these numbers a bit further and calculate each player’s points per shot. Points per shot is the number of points a player scores per field goal attempt. In this comparison, this stat is important because field goal attempts don’t differentiate between 2’s and 3’s and don’t account for free throw attempts. It gives a general number that can predict how many points each player would score if they were to attempt the same number of shots. It is a bit easier to visualize Curry’s unprecedented dominance when looking at the graph below.

 

Curry also is on pace to break the record for a single season Player Efficiency Rating (PER). For anybody who doesn’t know, PER is a metric that measures each player against the league average. A PER of 15 is the average, and anything above a 20 usually translates to all-star status. Steph Curry’s PER this year is 32.1. The current record for a single season is 31.8 which was posted by Wilt Chamberlain in 1963, when he averaged 44 points and 24 rebounds. Stephen Curry has been so much better than the rest of the league this season, that he is outperforming somebody who averaged 44 points and 24 rebounds over an entire season. 44 points!

In addition to the PER, I decided I was going to do some calculations of my own. These calculations measure what I consider to be the 5 best offensive seasons in NBA history (only including one Wilt season and one Michael Jordan season) against Steph Curry’s current statistics. These seasons included: Wilt Chamberlain in 1962-63, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar in 1971-72, Michael Jordan in 1988-89, Shaquille O’Neal in 1999-00, and LeBron James in 2009-10. I weighted 7 statistical categories equally; points per game, points per 36 minutes, PER, offensive win shares, assists, rebounds, and true shooting percentage, and used each to compare the 6 players’ seasons. In order to make valid comparisons, I first reviewed these numbers and made note of their rank from greatest to least. Each player was given a point value based on where they stacked up against their competition. Once these point values were assigned they were summed and averaged to determine the best across the board. My name for this new, very basic metric: Patrick Ducey’s incredibly accurate, super-duper offensive greatness rating.

*Converted from 53 games to full 80 game season

As most would have likely thought, Wilt Chamberlain’s season ranked 1st for Patrick Ducey’s incredibly accurate, super-duper offensive greatness rating. Chamberlain was a physical freak who put up ridiculous numbers playing in an era that is nowhere near the level of competition there is today. However, what may surprise some people is that Stephen Curry finished 2nd. Better than when Jordan averaged 32/8/8. Better than when Kareem averaged just under 35 points and 17 rebounds per game. Even better than Lebron James singlehandedly carrying a mediocre Cavs team to 61 wins while averaging just under 30 points, along with 8.6 assists and 7.3 rebounds per game. Stephen Curry, the 6’3″, 185 pound, Davidson alum, is actually putting together the greatest statistical offensive season in the modern NBA era (Or at least Patrick Ducey’s incredibly accurate, super-duper offensive greatness rating says so). And obviously this metric is somewhat flawed in that it doesn’t cover every offensive category and every offensive play and convert it into one number, but all statistics can be interpreted in different ways. This was just the best way I felt that each major offensive stat could be put together to determine the “best offensive season.” With that being said, the best part about Stephen Curry (and sports in general) is that numbers don’t tell the entirety of the story and a lot of what he and other athletes do can only be measured through the “eye-test.”

This is the fun part. The part where you get a ton of videos and GIFs of Steph doing ridiculous things that only Steph can do.

Often times you will hear play-by-play guys compare the way an athlete performs to a video game. In video games, they compare the virtual athletes to real-life Stephen Curry.

He has become the most entertaining show on television every other night and it is not just flashy passes and long threes. He is actually playing the game better than everyone else with sound fundamentals and a superior knowledge of the sport. His shot is just as good as people say it is, and he needs barely any room at all to get it off. He is also a phenomenal ball handler which allows him to get that space for his jump shot, or he can beat his man to the basket because defenders need to guard him so tight to prevent the three. And even if he can’t get space to hit the jumper, he will still find a way.

 

Nobody in the NBA can create points off the ball the way Curry can. Curry is always roaming around on offense, setting screens, bouncing off screens to get an open look, and cutting to the basket the instant the defender loses sight.

I have never seen anyone with the touch around the rim that Curry has. He makes his layups look like floaters and puts enough arc to avoid blocks from any player of any size, while also limiting the contact he makes at the rim. By getting his layups out of his hand very quickly and with very high arc, he doesn’t need to get hit and rarely needs to earn his shots at the free throw line. The minimized fouls also help him for the long haul, protecting his thin frame.

 

He has become the most unguardable player in the world. He can shoot over you, go around you or even pass it, cut to the basket and get open for a score. Defenders can never let him get an inch of room, and his unparalleled skill around the basket and on the perimeter allows him to score even if he doesn’t get a full inch of space. He was even able to make Kawhi Leonard, reigning defensive player of the year, look like a rec league scrub guarding him. He handles interviews with a humble grace that is rarely seen from today’s athletes. More often than not you’ll hear Richard Sherman screaming and ranting in the face of Erin Andrews or Lebron James saying “I” 18 times in a 2 minute interview following a championship win in a team sport, so Curry is truly a breath of fresh air. On the court, he plays with a swagger and confidence that makes him a fan favorite all over the world. Whether its high-fiving a teammate, or turning to run back on defense before his shot even makes it through the basket, or the shimmies in front of the opposing team’s bench after hitting a big shot, the fans eat it all up.

Throughout my 21 years on Earth, the sport that I have always loved has changed a lot. The day I was born, the New York Knicks beat the New Jersey Nets in overtime to improve to 43-21 on the season, the Warriors were on their way to a 26-56 record, and Michael Jordan sent “the fax.” One year later the Bulls went 72-10 in the greatest season in NBA history. Today, the Knicks have lost 13 of their last 15 games, Michael Jordan is 53 and made more money in the past year than his entire playing career combined, and Steph Curry is blessing us with a season that may end up being even better than “His Airness.” And eventually Curry and the Warriors’ run of dominance will end just like it did with Michael’s Bulls, Kobe’s Lakers, and LeBron’s Heat. Although it’s hard to take a step back from enjoying the Warriors to see the big picture, we need to recognize the basketball history that is flashing right before our eyes. Stephen Curry is a transcendent player who is leading the way in changes to the game unlike any before him. He shoots the deep ball better than anyone in the history of the sport and has developed a complete offensive game that is all the more impressive because he is not 6’8″, not 250 pounds, and he is never the fastest player on the court. After this season, Curry will be a two-time MVP winner and just as likely two-time NBA champion. The Warriors have nothing stopping them from keeping their core together and could even add Kevin Durant this summer (but that is a topic for a different day). We could sit here for hours discussing what his legacy will be like when it’s all said and done. We could talk about how many MVPs he might win, or how many championships it will take for him to be a legend. We might even question what it will take for him to dethrone the GOAT. But, I propose that for just this once, we just enjoy the ride.