NFL Week 11 Fantasy Preview

Welcome to the Week 11 edition of the High & Tight Sports Fantasy Preview. With 3 weeks left until the playoffs begin, it is still crunch time in the fantasy season, with teams trying to fight for the top spot, sneak into the playoffs and or avoid last place and the league punishments that accompany it. This article will include a Top Play, Must Start, and Sleeper from each position as well as players to use caution with or to just avoid completely. RBs, WRs and TEs will be projected off of a PPR format and QBs off of Yahoo standard scoring. Any fantasy questions can be emailed to highandtightsports@gmail.com or DM our twitter @HighTightBlog. Enjoy.

 

QBs

David Eulitt – Getty Images

TOP PLAY: Patrick Mahomes @LAR- This one is pretty simple, Mahomes has been the top QB this whole season and playing a Rams defense/secondary that gave up 31 points to Drew Brees a few weeks ago in a shootout and expect this game to be another one on Monday Night.

MUST START: Jared Goff vs KC- Same reason that Mahomes is the top player this week, Goff has been outstanding all year and this is going to be a shootout, even without probably his favorite receiver in Kupp, being out, he’ll still have a huge game at home against a defense allowing the 8th most fantasy points to opposing QBs.

AVOID: Andy Dalton @BAL- Dalton started the year off hot but has cooled off significantly since Week 4. Many expected a bounce back game from him last week home against the Saints, but he managed only 8.9 fantasy points. This week he plays a division game in Baltimore against a defense that has given up the 3rd fewest passing yards per game and the 8th fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs.

SLEEPER: Eli Manning vs TB- Eli is averaging 301 yards per game and 5:2 TD:INT ratio over the last 3 weeks and is facing the horrendous Tampa Bay defense that’s allowing the 4th most fantasy points to opposing QBs, Eli is poised for a good week.

 

RBs

TOP PLAY: Todd Gurley vs KC- Another player from the LAR/KC matchup, Gurley is the top RB this season and in this shootout he should see an uptick in receptions and will have at least 1, probably 2 scores as the Chiefs defense has allowed 4 touchdowns to opposing RBs their last 2 games.

MUST START: Christian McCaffrey @DET- Coming off back to back 30 point weeks and a 3 touchdown performance against the Steelers, McCaffrey has another great matchup this week against the Lions defense that allows 132.7 yards per game on the ground and the 8th most fantasy points to opposing RBs.

CAUTION: Kerryon Johnson vs CAR- While he’s established himself as the team’s clear lead back, Johnson hasn’t averaged more than 3.6 yards per carry in his last three, leaving him in need of volume to provide a return against a ninth ranked Panthers run defense that allows 99 yards per game, and HC Matt Patricia already said a few weeks ago that he feels Kerryon’s workload is enough.

SLEEPER: Alex Collins vs CIN- Collins has been a massive dud for those that drafted him and with Ty Montgomery in the mix you’re probably wondering why he’s here, well last week the Bengals defense allowed 207 rushing yards and 56.1 total fantasy points to 3 Saints running backs and have allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to RBs this season. Montgomery specializes in catching the ball, I think Collins can have a big week.

 

WRs

TOP PLAY: Michael Thomas vs PHI- Obviously he is the top play. 66 poimts over the last 2 weeks and facing an Eagles secondary at home that is allowing the 5th most fantasy points to opposing WRs and just lost Ronald Darby, expect Thomas to put up at least 25 again.

MUST START: Amari Cooper @ATL- This may seem odd but coming off a 10 target 6/75 game against the Eagles and back to back games over 13 points, facing a depleted Falcons defense that allows 294 passing yards per game and the 4th most fantasy points to opposing WRs, Cooper is a must start.

AVOID: Calvin Ridley vs DAL- Ridley is coming off a 7 point performance in which he saw only 5 targets in a loss and has only 1 touchdown in his last 5 games. Now he’s facing the Cowboys defense which is allowing the 2nd fewest fantasy points to opposing WRs. Try to Avoid using Ridley this week.

SLEEPER: Anthony Miller vs MIN- Now with 3 straight weeks over 10 fantasy points and the best game of his season and young career, Miller is my sleeper this week. While he does have a tough matchup with the Vikings, Miller has seen at least 6 targets in his last 4 games and the Vikings will have to focus on stopping Robinson, Burton, Howard and Cohen besides him. I believe 5/60 and a touchdown is a possibility for Miller this week.

Getty Images

TEs

TOP PLAY: Zach Ertz @NO- Ertz will most likely be the top TE in this preview every week, he’s the top TE in the league and it isn’t particularly close. In what could be a shootout in the dome, fire up Ertz as the TE1.

MUST START: Evan Engram vs TB- Engram was very good last year but an injury and inconsistency this year has dragged him down, he’s here because he has great talent and because the Bucs are allowing 292 passing yards per game and the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing TEs.

AVOID: Jimmy Graham @SEA- Coming off a game where he saw just 1 target, and has only 21 fantasy points in his last 3 weeks, I would avoid Graham this week. Especially in Seattle, facing a defense that’s allowing the 6th fewest fantasy points to opposing TEs. He also was just taken off the injury report today after his knee was reported to be bothering him.

SLEEPER: Ricky Seals-Jones vs OAK- Coming off a 9 target 5/51 performance against the Chiefs and due to the lack of depth in TEs, Ricky is my sleeper this week, facing an Oakland defense that has given up and is allowing the 7th most fantasy points to opposing TEs.

 

DEF

TOP PLAY: Carolina Panthers @DET

BEST STREAM: Arizona Cardinals vs OAK

 

K

TOP PLAY: Wil Lutz vs PHI

BEST STREAM: Ryan Succop @IND

NFL Week 10 Fantasy Preview

Welcome to the first edition of High & Tight Sports’ Fantasy Preview here in Week 10. This is the beginning of crunch time in the fantasy season, with teams either trying to fight for the top spot, sneak into playoffs and or avoid last place and the league punishments that accompany it. This article will include a Top Play, Must Start, and Sleeper from each position as well as players to use caution with or to just avoid completely. Any fantasy questions can be emailed to highandtightsports@gmail.com or DM our twitter @HighTightBlog. Enjoy.

 

QBs

TOP PLAY: Cam Newton @PIT- Cam Newton edges out Drew Brees as my top QB option this week as he now has thrown at least 2 touchdown passes in SEVEN consecutive games, as well as over 20 fantasy points in his last 4 games and 6 of the 8 games he’s played in this year. He’s facing a Pittsburgh defense that allows 274.6 yards per game this year and 17 passing touchdowns through 8 games, resulting in them allowing the 5^th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season.

MUST START: Philip Rivers @OAK- Although he hasn’t been throwing the ball as much the last few weeks (doesn’t have over 27 attempts since Week 4) he still has at least 2 touchdown passes in every game this season. Pair that with the fact he’s facing an Oakland Defense that just got torched by Nick Mullens (262yds, 3td, 0int), also got lit up by Ryan Tannehill in Week 3 (289yds, 3tds, 0ints) and seems to have just given up at this point. Combine those factors and you find a lot to love about Rivers this week.

CAUTION: Tom Brady @TEN- Yes, avoid Tom Brady this week. He has only 5 touchdowns over his last 4 games (3 coming in the game @Chicago), and although he still has had the yards over the span (averaging 308.7), he is facing a Tennessee defense that is allowing the 6^th fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this year. Look for Malcolm Butler to play his best game of the year against his old team as well.

SLEEPER: Baker Mayfield vsATL- Baker has thrown the ball over 34 times in each of his starts and going against a depleted Falcons defense in a game that figures to be a shootout, Baker is my sleeper for the week. The Falcons have given up the 3^rd most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and have allowed at least 250 yards to every starter besides Nick Foles Week 1 and the ONLY quarterbacks not to throw for at LEAST 3 touchdowns are Nick Foles, Eli Manning, and Alex Smith…Baker is a better QB than them and will have at least 2 touchdowns this week along with at least 275 yards.

 

RBs

TOP PLAY: Kareem Hunt vsARI- Kareem Hunt started the season off somewhat slow but has really picked it up recently with over 30 fantasy points in 2 of his last 3 games, he has also scored a touchdown in every game except for week 1. He will be facing a Cardinals defense that’s the second worst in the league in both rushing yards allowed per game and rushing TDs allowed and has allowed the second most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season. The Chiefs should go up big and it should happen quickly, which is why Kareem Hunt is my top play this week.

MUST START: Duke Johnson Jr. vsATL- Duke Johnson? Yup. He has only 3 games over 10 points this year, but he’s coming off a 25 point performance last week in which he only had 1 carry for 9 yards. His rushing stats aren’t why he’s here, but his receiving stats…oh boy. He had 9 receptions for 78 yards and 2 touchdowns, and is now facing an Atlanta defense that is allowing the 4^th most fantasy points to opposing running backs. They allowed 14, 15 and 9 receptions to Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara and Saquon Barkley and are allowing an average of 6.8 receptions to running backs each week. Start Duke Johnson this week.

CAUTION: David Johnson @KC- Looking at this matchup with the Chiefs, you would think this would be a good matchup for Johnson as they don’t have a good defense and they’re allowing the 10^th most fantasy points to opposing running backs. However, Johnson over the last 3 weeks is averaging just 10.8 fantasy points and with the Chiefs most likely leading the whole way this week he probably wont get too many rushing attempts and the Cardinals haven’t schemed many targets Johnson’s way this year, so I say be cautious with him this week.

SLEEPER: Mark Ingram @CIN- After bursting back onto the scene in Week 5 after his suspension, Ingram has only 18 total fantasy points in the 3 games since. However I believe this is due to game script, in close games or shootouts Kamara will get the majority of the touches, which has been the last 3 weeks. This week however, the Saints are facing a Cincinnati team without top receiver AJ Green and a defense allowing 128.4 rushing yards and 29.6 points per game as well as the 6^th most fantasy points to opposing running backs.

Bill Feig – AP

WRs

TOP PLAY: Michael Thomas @CIN- Coming off of a monster game at home against the Rams where he hung a 12/211/1 line for 33.1 fantasy points, Thomas will face the Bengals who are giving up a league worst 319.4 yards per game in the air and has allowed the 4^th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. Expect Thomas to torch the Bengals secondary this week.

MUST START: Tyler Boyd vsNO- If you couldn’t tell by now, I think this Saints/Bengals matchup will produce a lot of fantasy points and with AJ Green out, Tyler Boyd is looking like a no brainer start. The Saints defense has allowed the second most receiving yards per game and the most fantasy points to opposing receivers this year. Boyd has been productive with Green on the field and with him out, I believe he will just produce more.

AVOID: Golden Tate vsDAL- After being traded from Detroit to Philadelphia, Tate is on a better team but in a worse spot for fantasy. He was averaging 10 targets per game for Detroit and now playing the Cowboys who are allowing the 2^nd least amount of fantasy points to opposing receivers, mix that with the fact that he will be running routes similar to Zach Ertz, and I think Tate should be avoided.

SLEEPER: Antonio Callaway vsATL- Antonio Callaway had his second fewest number of offensive snaps last week, however he’s had at least 5 targets in 6 of his last 7 games. The Browns are also playing a depleted Falcons defense, which has given up the 5^th most receiving yards per game and the 3^rd most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers.

 

TEs

TOP PLAY: Zach Ertz vsDAL- Ertz has a tough matchup this week against the Cowboys but tight end is extremely thin and he has been extremely productive with 6/8 games over 10 fantasy points this year and at least 9 targets in all but one game this season.

MUST START: OJ Howard vsWSH- OJ Howard has been very good this year when healthy, he has posted at least 53 yards in every game he’s been healthy and has scored 4 touchdowns over the last 4 weeks. He faces an average Redskins defense this week which is allowing the 12^th fewest fantasy points to opposing tight ends but will get his yards with a good chance at a touchdown.

AP

AVOID: Rob Gronkowski @TEN- Mixed between a bad back and ankle, the fact he hasn’t been the same player this year when he’s played and the fact that the Titans are allowing the fewest fantasy points to opposing tight ends…I’m staying away from Gronk this week.

SLEEPER: Jordan Reed @TB- The Redskins offense hasn’t been explosive but against Tampa they may be forced to force the ball down field more. Reed has struggled this season with only 1 touchdown to this point but he is healthy and the Bucs have allowed the 2^nd most fantasy points to opposing tight ends, Reed could have a big week this week and could be a sneaky play with people down on him.

 

DEF

TOP PLAY: Bears vsDET

BEST STREAM: Jets vsBUF

 

K

TOP PLAY: Jason Myers vsBUF

BEST STREAM: Josh Lambo @IND

Salami’s College Football Gambling Slate – November 3rd, 2018

“They lost too many guys in the draft.” “They got buried four times in conference games last year.” Washington State football has faced quite the criticism this year, but in Week 10 they’re sitting pretty atop the Pac-12 North at 7-1, ranked #10 in the country. Siiiiiick. Honestly, who gives a shit about Washington State football? Nobody. What I do care about is making money, and at 8-0 against the spread so far this year, Washington State is the lock of the century until next week. Milk the titty ’til it’s all dried out, and hammer Washington State ’til they don’t cover.

Lock of the Century: Washington State -10.

P.S. I checked and Washington State is against Cal. Do I care that Cal blew out Washington State 37-3 last year? No shot. New quarterback, new team. Book it.

For those of you not sitting home and watching college football at 11 pm on a Saturday (disregard this one, John), you might want to get in on a little earlier action on College Football Saturday.

Also in the Pac-12, Oregon just got smoked each of their last two games. All the talk surrounding QB Justin Herbert is whether or not he’s gonna turn pro or stick around another year to play with his brother. Does a future Giant and future NFL Hall of Famer get rattled by all this chatter surrounding him and the team? No way, Jose (RIP). Herbert is gonna come out guns blazing and wipe his nads all over the entire UCLA program, including Chip Kelly’s forehead. UCLA also blows so there’s that, too. Prediction: Oregon 69, UCLA -3.

Pick: Oregon -10.5.

You want dogs? We got dogs. Miami is a walking trash can of a team. 2 mediocre quarterbacks, 2 mediocre running backs. Still haven’t found the right balance of either position. Either the U needs to start paying its players again or they gotta bring back Third Leg Greg to provide real offensive talent. On the other side of the field, Daniel Jones is quietly turning into a pro talent. Expect Duke to hang around with Miami for the whole game, they even have potential to pull a huge upset. Buy the half point up to an even 10 (nobody likes to get finger blasted in the bum on a 10 point loss), and lay your bank account on it.

Pick: Duke +10.